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Forecasting Punjab's Revenue and Public Expenditure

This project is an exercise in forecasting Revenue, Expenditure and the Overall Fiscal Balance (OFB) for the Punjab government from base FY 2013 to FY 2020. This is a perilous task as 80 percent of Punjab revenue in the base year FY 12/13 came from federal transfers and as such year or year revenue estimates are heavily dependent on federal tax policy and collection. Furthermore the balancing item in the government’s Medium Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF) is development expenditure, whereas in the model constructed for the purposes of this endeavour, the residual will be the OFB. The main purpose of this paper is to make the budget more intelligible and develop insight into the constituents of the provincial budget for students of economics and others with an interest in public finance but who find the budget inscrutable. The figures included in the analysis are interpolated between the period of base FY 2013 to the present FY 2016 and further extrapolated up to FY 2020.

Publications

A Forecasting Model of Punjab Revenue and Spending
Working Paper | Author: Anjum Nasim
This working paper provides a model for forecasting Punjab’s public expenditure and revenue. Given the assumptions of this model, Punjab will have surplus revenue of up to Rs. 370 billion by fiscal year 2019/2020. In addition to the forecast, this paper provides a guide into how Punjab’s budget is composed.
Read the working paper

Interactives

Forecasting Tool for Punjab Revenue and Spending
Using the forecasting model developed by IDEAS Senior Research Fellow Anjum Nasim, this tool allows users to simulate different revenue and expenditure scenarios for Punjab by changing the assumptions that determine its budget. The tool requires Microsoft Excel to run.
Download the tool