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Forecasting Government Revenue and Spending

The project is an exercise in forecasting provincial governments’ revenues, spending and fiscal deficit for FY2013/14 to FY2019/20. The main purpose is to make the provincial budgets more intelligible and to develop insights into the constituents of the provincial budget for students of economics and others with an interest in public finance but who find the budgets inscrutable.

The paper: ‘A forecasting Model of Punjab Revenue and Spending’, provides details of the methodology, the various constituents of revenue and spending and the forecasts for Punjab. It is accompanied by a PowerPoint presentation and an excel-based forecasting tool for Punjab. The former provides a quick overview of the methodology, and the latter is a learning tool for students but it should also assist policy makers in simulating alternative scenarios by altering the assumptions that underlie the forecasting model.

PowerPoint presentations and excel-based forecasting tools are being developed for other provinces using the same methodological framework as discussed in detail in the Punjab paper and outlined in the PowerPoint presentation.

Publications

A Forecasting Model of Punjab Revenue and Spending
Working Paper | Author: Anjum Nasim
This working paper provides a model for forecasting Punjab’s public expenditure and revenue. Given the assumptions of this model, Punjab will have surplus revenue of up to Rs. 370 billion by fiscal year 2019/2020. In addition to the forecast, this paper provides a guide into how Punjab’s budget is composed.
Read the working paper

Interactives

Forecasting Tool for Punjab Revenue and Spending
Using the forecasting model developed by IDEAS Senior Research Fellow Anjum Nasim, this tool allows users to simulate different revenue and expenditure scenarios for Punjab by changing the assumptions that determine its budget. The tool requires Microsoft Excel to run.
Download the tool

Presentations