Punjab Budget Forecast Tool

The web based visualizations that follow are based on a budget forecasting model developed by Senior Research Fellow Dr. Anjum Nasim in his paper research paper 'A Forecasting Model of Punjab Revenue and Spending', and an excel version of this model developed by Research Associate Umbreen Fatima.

Get Started

Tutorial

Intro

Introduction

The annual budgets of the federal and provincial governments are presented at the start of every financial year. Through the budgets and related documents, the government briefs the public about its performances, its economic agenda in the near term and the detailed breakup of its planned expenditure, and the sources of financing the expenditure in the new financial year. Despite their importance, budgets are inscrutable to most people. This forecasting tool for the Punjab budget is a continuation of our effort at IDEAS to make the budget more accessible to students of economics and others with an interest in public finance. It will also help policy makers in simulating various scenarios by altering the underlying assumptions of the forecasting model

In this tool, users can select from three visualizations (Revenue, Expenditure and Balance). Users can also change economic assumptions (through slider and numeric inputs) to observe the effect of those changes reflected in the Revenue, Expenditure and Balance visualizations. Assumptions can be filtered through the "Year" and the "Category" buttons. For an in depth theoretical understanding of the tool, we highly recommend users to review the research paper or the abridged methodology. A video tutorial to guide users about the functionality of the tool can also be found here.

Reset all values Toggle inputs

Value: 5.37

-2 10

Value: 4.2

0 30

Value: 0.125

0.08 0.18

Value: 4.2

0 30

Value: 2

0 10

Value: 0.055

Note: Value will update the same input field in the "Punjab's own tax revenue" category

0.04 0.10

Value: 0.92

0.7 1

Value: 1

0 5

Value: 1

0 3

Value: 57.5

40 65

Value: 51.74

45 65

Value: 0

0 100

Note: Value will update the same input field in the 'Federal Transfers (divisible pool NFC award)' category

Value: 0.07

0.04 0.10

Value: 256

0.45 0.65

Value: 0.00010524

0.0001 0.0004

Value: 0

0 20

Value: 36.5

0 25

Value: 36.5

0 100

Value: 0.0018

0.001 0.01

Value: 21

0 100

Value: 256

0 20

Value: 256

0 25

Value: 256

0 100

Value: 256

0 100

Value: 256

0 0.003

Value: 256

0 10

Value: 256

-10 20

Value: 256

0 25

Value: 256

0 15

Note: Value will reset if the input here is greater than the value of outstanding domestic debt

Value: 256

0 50

Note: Value will reset if the input here is greater than the value of outstanding foreign debt

Value: 256

0 200

Value: 256

0 200

Value: 256

0 15

Value: 256

0 100

Value: 256

0 50

Value: 256

0 10
GDP growth rate real (%) Update Reset Edits

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024